Just read an exuberant post about how “Austin Real Estate Is Kicking Major Butt”: with relatively low 6.7% unemployment rate, Austin’s job market is a magnet, home sales are up, values are stable, mortgage rates are low. According to this post, it’s a healthy market.

Though the Austin American-Statesman doesn’t say Austin’s “kicking butt,” it suggests that the “housing market might be recovering”, noting that home starts were up 27% in 3Q 20ll and there was a 2% growth rate in jobs over the 12 months ending in August – that’s 15,500 new jobs. The Statesman’s piece is not altogether rosy. It quotes Eldon Rude of Metrostudy: “Although Austin continues to exhibit the key drivers for housing demand — job creation and population growth — the one ingredient we are missing is strong consumer confidence. Considering the dark economic news that has circulated in the last 60 days, it is hard to expect that the demand for new homes will pick up strongly in the short term.” However the Statesman says that “a number of builders are putting new homes on the ground and say they are seeing encouraging signs.” Scott Eckley, vice president of sales for Pulte Homes in Austin, is quoted as saying “for the month of September we are going to sell more than 75-plus homes net, which is obviously a robust number.” He says that the key to the healthy market is continued job growth.

Another good sign from the Statesman: 221 homes will be added to the local inventory via new development in the Mueller subdivision, the former site of the Austin airport which was repurposed as a sustainable development project by the City of Austin and Catellus Development.

My view is that the market has picked up steadily for the last year, and we are approaching a balanced market where there’s around a six month supply of homes on the market. I think this will hold into the spring, meaning a robust 2012 and contninued strong sales through the fall and winter, if the economy remains fairly stable. This is probably due to pent-up demand and the incredibly low interest rates.

Contact me (mlebkowsky at cbunited.com) for more specific and concrete information about the neighborhood you’re interested in.

Now called Circuit of the Americas, the new Forumula One track in southeast Austin will have a big impact on the area. Big news today is that the track will also host MotoGP, a premiere motorcycle racing event. (More on Circuit of the Americas at Wikipedia.) Follow this link for images of the site southeast of Austin.

These events could trigger a surge for Austin real estate through the creation of new jobs, and through potentially attracting new real estate investment.

Here’s the recent press conference video:

Austin home sales are down, but we had a 2.4% increase in jobs since October of 2009. Austin still feels relatively healthy, economically, compared to other parts of the U.S.

However the front-page headline in today’s Austin American-Statesman says “Austin-area home sales set for 4th annul tumble.” (The web version says drop, rather than tumble – is “drop” more SEO-friendly?)

According to the Statesman, October sales were down 31% from a year earlier, and sales have been down over the previous year for five months in a row. Last year we had the tax incentive, which bolstered sales. It would be interesting to see how last year’s numbers would have looked without the incentive, but that would involve guesswork.

It takes an average 92 days to sell a home in Central Texas currently, up from 73 days a year ago. This might also be attributable to the loss of the incentive; it could also be because it’s harder to get a loan. The Statesman quotes JB Goodwin Realtor Robin Curle, who said “lenders are scared and are really tightening up their requirements.” She noted that they’re also busy with refinancings and appraisers are being more cautious, so it takes longer for deals to close, like 45 days instead of 30.

Earlier in the article, Curle is quoted as saying she’s working with some buyers that are looking for great deal – Cynthia Mattiza, also with JB Goodwin, is quoted as saying many buyers are dropping prices, though median prices are up 10% over a year ago (possibly another explanation for the increased days-on-market).

The great deals are out there, to be sure – and I can help you find ‘em. If you’re interested, email me at mlebkowsky at cbunited.com.

Joe Etherton and Karen Cotter's modular home.

The Statesman has a feature about a high-end modular home prefabricated, delivered in two chunks, and set on a robust foundation. The project,  coordinated by MA Modular for Joe Etherton and Karen Cotter, was not exactly what you think of when you think modular. “The couple paid $235,000 for the lot and about $237,000 for the 1,500-square-foot house, including the cost of some upgrades such as massaranduba (Brazilian redwood) siding,” according to the article.

Etherton’s and Cotter’s abode doesn’t scream “modular.” It looks like any upscale, contemporary South Austin house, with a standing-seam metal roof and moss-green stucco along with the rich-looking massaranduba on the exterior. The bathrooms have subway tile, and the kitchen is sleek with Silestone countertops and Merillat cabinets. Bamboo floors and light woods throughout, along with a wealth of windows and a ceiling that slopes from 9 feet to 11 feet, make the house look bigger than it is. Triple sliding-glass doors open from the living room onto a back deck of more than 500 square feet. The master bedroom opens onto the deck, as well. Beyond that, there’s a big, grassy yard for the kids to play in.

[Link to the full article] | [Link to images of the home]

From the Austin Real Estate Blog: in December, for the fourth month in a row, Austin real estate sales were up over the previous year. The average and median sales price were up 6 percent, and the number of active listings is down 5% from this time last year. With 1373 sales, December was still weaker than October (1783 sales) and November (1542 sales). The market’s strength is probably attributable to the Federal housing tax credit, which will expire. According to the Real Estate Blog, “For buyers the trade off is that later there might be less buyers to
compete with in the market later but interest rates might be higher.
For sellers there is no real trade off. Waiting a few months for higher
interest rates and less buyers is probably far from ideal.”

The Austin Board of Realtors and the Home Builders Association of Greater Austin held a housing and economic forecast event Wednesday at the AT&T Executive Education and Conference Cetner at UT. Eldon Rude of MetroStudy said that economic and housing fundamentals are the strongest among the more than 40 housing markets across the country, and that “when the U.S. economy improves, Austin will be one of the first markets that shows stronger growth in its housing market.” Housing starts are down but stable, with an increase possible this year. Read more at Statesman.com.

LovelyListing.com shows this interesting property at 507 Leland in Austin. Give me a call if you’re interested, I’d love a chance to show it!

According to the Austin Business Journal, the Austin-Round Rock area was named best performing city on the 2009 Milken Institute/Greenstreet Real Estate Partners Best Performing Cities Index. This is based on Austin’s ability to create and sustain jobs, considering metrics for employment, salary growth and technology output.

“Texas’ strong position in our best performing cities study demonstrates that a favorable business climate, combined with a low-cost/low-tax environment, is highly supportive of job creation,” said Ross DeVol, senior economist at the Milken Institute and lead author of the report. “The state has diversified its economy by fostering several key high-tech clusters, and the passage of Proposition 4, allocating $500 million in funding for research universities, will make Texas an even more formidable competitor in the future.”

The Milken Institute press release is here. Note that Austin is the first metro to ever be ranked number one twice on the index, the last time being in 2000.

Increase in housing starts are up for the month, but down 45% from a year ago.

Not in Austin, but nationally, there is still a glut of homes on the market, many of which are foreclosures or distressed properties. The low interest rates and the $8,000 tax credit have had a major impact on the reductions in that glut, but it’s not over yet. As interest rates rise, more people will be excluded from the market. Some experts feel that the rates will be forced lower to sustain the housing recovery. Some hope for a $15,000 tax credit for all buyers to significantly alter the damage done by the falling market. We in Austin will reap the benefits as our housing market ramps up this summer.

Austin is the best city to get a fresh start, according to Relocation.com (via Austin Business Journal). Austin’s at the top of a list “based on consumer requests for moving quotes to move to that city; economic-growth prospects; home affordability; and the strength of a community as reflected by volunteerism rates.”